Upcoming Showers by W8WN.

Date: Mon, 24 Nov 1997 22:33:12 +0000
To: hsms@tree.net
From:  Shelby Ennis, W8WN 
Subject: [HSMS] Re: [METEOR-SCATTER] Upcoming Showers
>Hello Shelby,
>There are some minor showers active at the end of November and on the first
>days of December, after which there is some lull time and then the big
>shower raises it's head.
>>GEMINIDS - Until the new large peaks of the Perseids a few years ago, the
>>Geminids had become the primary shower of the year.  It may produce meteors
>>busy with other things.  Best bet - make a sked or two each evening,
>>starting early in the month, putting the difficult paths Dec 10-16, and
>>especially near the peak.  Looks like a good shower for CQs on 144.100, etc.
>Skeds for GEMINIDS are productive from some 4 days before the peak to some
>12...24 hrs after it. This shower works great on 2m, the high speed showers
>are little better of course, but if you are not trying too long distances,
>the shower works well for normal MS distance QSOs. I will even try 432 MHz
>with it this year.
>>URSIDS - A minor shower.  The peak is predicted about 22 December, 0800
>>UTC.  Circumpolar (the radiant never sets in northern locations).  Slow
>>meteors.  Count much lower than Geminids or Perseids; but it should be well
>>above the background sporadic count.  Again, this is where HSCW should give
>>a number of contacts in a couple of evenings.
>During the enhanced rates and outbursts, this showe typically has doubled the
>reflection counts during some 12h period around the peak and half of that
>on days before and after. This means the shower is useful, but may not
>provide clear enhancements in QSOs, since it is indeed a minor shower. I
>would place it on the list as #8...10 or so along with Lyrids. On other
>dates the Ursids counts
>are difficult to see from sporadic background. Forgot to say that THIS
>shower is the one that nobody has time to use, it is just too hectic - 2
>days before Xmas
>>QUADRANTIDS - One of the "Big Three" of the major showers.  However, like
>>the Leonids, this shower has a very sharp spike-like peak.  Miss the peak
>>by a few hours and you've missed the peak completely, and also most of the
>>shower!  Catch the peak and you may get quite a good shower.  In addition,
>>the peak time is variable, as is the peak count.  Best guess, around 1600
>>UTC, 3 January 1998.  Slower rise, very rapid decline after the peak.
>>Local rise/set times, 2300/1800 (Local).  Best for NE-SW and SE-NW paths.
>>For HSCW, make skeds in morning hours, up to noon.  Start skeds on 1
>>January.  As probable peak time approaches, consider CQs on .100.  Also
>>consider monitoring 144.200.  Random SSB might be good for a short time IF
>>you catch the peak.  A difficult shower to plan for.
>Quadrantid are a one night or day quest, skeds difficult to plan, random may
>be better.
>>After this, it's routine HSCW skeds using sporadics until the May 1-6 Eta
>>Aquarids (a minor shower) 
>You have forgotten April Lyrids, a minor shower that draws attention after
>the poor spring season.
>>plan your holiday  activities to allow some skeds in the next 6 weeks.  The
>>period of 1 December through about 6 January is a very good time.  And
>>after this we won't have much above the background sporadics for several
>There are minor showers in January and some even weaker ones in February, but
>in March nothing but a few Virgnids at night. The conditions are challenging,
>but with a good station at proper distance QSO can be completed. It often
>takes double time and picking the informations from pings. These months would
>be perfect for attitude calibration for those who continuously are reporting
>bad (shower) conditions during major showers.
>> Of course, this doesn't stop HSCW.  But the more pings, the better.
>You said it, and now the DL's who have their own twisted antique definition
>for ping, think that you said "the more reflections impossible to copy, the
>I hope we get the ping definition re-defined ASAP (IARU meeting).
>>"VHF Meteor Scatter = An >Astronomical Perspective", Michael R. Owen,
>W9IP/2, >QST June 1986; 
>I don't have a copy of this W9IP software (one that would run (I quess it
>requires GW BASIC and I don't have it)) and have no particular interest to
>debug the cause, but since someone seems to refer to W9PI's peak calculation
>program, which I hear, gives different results with same start parameters.
>Is there anyone who could see what is wrong with it and either make noise
>and telling averyone to trash it or make even more noise to get the
>correction thru to those who are using it. I am not 100% sure, but there
>might be something wrong with W9PI's code, it might be ok for 1986, but not
>for 1997 or 2003!
>Why do I care? I get complaints from confused users.
> 73 Ilkka
>PS. Keep up the information flowing. Lists like this are necessary to keep
>people active and get some new ones interested.
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Ilkka -
Tnx info.  Very good.  So is your program! 

Actually, I hadn't intended to go into the minor showers in that message -
only the next two major showers.  Because of lack of time, I had planned to
put out a long piece on the minor showers after Christmas.  But when
writing about those three (which I had already promised to do), I felt that
I just had to add info on a few more.  But what you say is correct about
those showers, going from memory from long ago when I had time to work most
of them!  If you don't mind, I'd like to forward it to the rest of the
fellows on the HSCW reflector over here.  (I'm almost getting so that I
like January and February.  The only months I have to actually catch up a
little on reading and writing.  Hi).



Comments: Rein, W6/PA0ZN

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